San Paolo Padova 0-1 Bassano Virtus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
32%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
56%
Over
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
No Pick
59%
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2-3
32%
4-5
26%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
54%
-9.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
32%
Away Win
21%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Paolo Padova The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bassano Virtus The Market 24%
-68% / -68% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.48/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/0.47
-58% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
416 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH San Paolo Padova vs Bassano Virtus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bassano Virtus edged past San Paolo Padova 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was San Paolo Padova at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of San Paolo Padova vs Bassano Virtus?

San Paolo Padova 0-1 Bassano Virtus in the Italy - Serie D on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Paolo Padova vs Bassano Virtus?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Paolo Padova win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split San Paolo Padova 44%, draw 24%, Bassano Virtus 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (San Paolo Padova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Paolo Padova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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