Portland Timbers 4-1 Colorado Rapids — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒06:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.69
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.28
6+ Goals
13%
11.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.22
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
4.04
X/2
7%
9.18
X/X
11%
5.3
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
9%
6.91
2/X
7%
15.2
Value flag · X/1 at 4.04 — our 27% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Timbers EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Colorado Rapids EU Bookmakers 25%
+3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
1.67/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.81
-2% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
385 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
19.4 Crosses 17.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Timbers
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Colorado Rapids
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.47 xG 1.07
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
338 Passes 314
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 3-2 HT 2-2 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids ABD
13.07.2023 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 0-0 HT 0-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
26.06.2022 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 3-0 HT 1-0 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids ABD
01.05.2022 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 2-0 HT 1-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
26.11.2021 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 0-1 HT 0-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
24.10.2021 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 2-0 HT 1-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Timbers
4-1
AWAY Colorado Rapids
0.54 xG 1.22
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 470
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Timbers swept aside Colorado Rapids 4-1. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Portland Timbers as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Portland Timbers had 41% of the ball to Colorado Rapids's 59%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.54 to 1.22 — the balance of chances actually favoured Colorado Rapids.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portland Timbers had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Portland Timbers and 1.00 for Colorado Rapids.

What was the final score of Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids?

Portland Timbers 4-1 Colorado Rapids in the USA - Major League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Timbers win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Portland Timbers 51%, draw 26%, Colorado Rapids 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portland Timbers), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portland Timbers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
25 Feb 2024
00:30 Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders Analysis →
03:30 DC United vs New England Revolution Analysis →
03:30 Charlotte vs New York City FC Analysis →
03:30 Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire Analysis →
03:30 Orlando City vs CF Montreal Analysis →
04:30 FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Analysis →