Hartlepool United 3-1 Carlisle United — Result, Stats & Model Review (England - National League, 25 Feb 2026)

Hartlepool United

3-1 HT 1-0

Carlisle United

📅25/02/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗

England - National League – 2025/2026

Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

37%

2.84

Draw

24%

3.35

Away

39%

2.16

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48%

1.86

Over 2.5

52%

1.86

Both Teams to Score

Yes

54%

1.7

46%

2.03

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

27%

3.11

2-3 Goals

38%

1.72

4-5 Goals

25%

3.37

6+ Goals

10%

13.15

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

19%

4.62

1/2 EV+ ✗

11%

25.0

1/X

13.6

X/1

12%

6.46

X/2

4.94

X/X

4.71

2/1

31.5

2/2

20%

3.06

2/X

13.1

Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

37%

Home Win

32%

+5.3pp

25%

Draw

26%

-1.8pp

39%

Away Win

42%

-3.6pp

48%

Under 2.5

50%

-1.6pp

52%

Over 2.5

50%

+1.6pp

54%

BTTS Yes

55%

-0.7pp

46%

BTTS No

45%

+0.7pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hartlepool United v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 35%

Head to Head

AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 46%

+10% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%

1.35/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.41

+7% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +150%

50% Ball Possession 50%

11 Total Shots 10

5 Shots on Target 4

5 Corners 5

288 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 80%

– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –

– Crosses –

2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Hartlepool United

1W-2D-3L

AWAY Carlisle United

1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17

0.97 xG 1.37

50% Ball Possession 50%

9 Total Shots 14

3 Shots on Target 6

3 Corners 6

226 Passes 199

61% Pass Accuracy 60%

16 Box Touches 19

17 Crosses 18

1 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

01.10.2025 Carlisle United

3-1 HT 1-0

Hartlepool United İBSL

24.01.2023 Carlisle United

3-1 HT 2-1

Hartlepool United İN2

08.10.2022 Hartlepool United

1-3 HT 1-0

Carlisle United İN2

18.01.2022 Carlisle United

0-0 HT 0-0

Hartlepool United İN2

31.08.2021 Carlisle United

3-3 HT 1-1

Hartlepool United İNTK

28.08.2021 Hartlepool United

2-1 HT 1-1

Carlisle United İN2

Hartlepool United 3-1 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Hartlepool United

3-1

AWAY Carlisle United

53% Ball Possession 47%

18 Total Shots 13

7 Shots on Target 5

8 Corners 2

1 Yellow Cards 2

POST-MATCH Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartlepool United beat Carlisle United 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 39% — and on the day Hartlepool United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Hartlepool United had 53% of the ball to Carlisle United's 47%, shots finished 18-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hartlepool United and 2.17 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United?

Hartlepool United 3-1 Carlisle United in the England - National League on 25/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hartlepool United 37%, draw 25%, Carlisle United 39%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carlisle United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes

Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →

Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →

İBSL More England - National League

25 Feb 2026

22:45 Eastleigh vs Truro City Analysis →

22:45 Gateshead vs Morecambe Analysis →

22:45 Yeovil vs Sutton United Analysis →

22:45 Braintree Town vs Aldershot Town Analysis →