Moldova 2-3 Estonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 25 Mar 2025

📅25/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
39%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.51
Over 2.5
48%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.21
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
5.17
6+ Goals
8%
32.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.71
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.5
X/1
15%
4.25
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
7.9
X/X
16%
3.71
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
10%
6.99
2/X
7%
15.9
Value flag · X/2 at 7.9 — our 18% vs market 9.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
48%
-14.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
39%
Away Win
23%
+16.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
62%
-10.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
38%
+10.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.5pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moldova EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Estonya EU Bookmakers 26%
-60% / -60% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.09/0.79
-25% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -91% / +58%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
Crosses 14.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moldova
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Estonya
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
18.11.2008 Estonya Estonya 1-0 HT 0-0 Moldova Moldova HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moldova
2-3
AWAY Estonya
0.67 xG 1.72
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
262 Passes 296
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Moldova vs Estonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estonya edged past Moldova 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Estonya made the difference. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Moldova had 50% of the ball to Estonya's 50%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 0.67 to 1.72.

What was the final score of Moldova vs Estonya?

Moldova 2-3 Estonya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 25/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moldova vs Estonya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Estonya win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Moldova 34%, draw 27%, Estonya 39%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estonya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Estonya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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