Kırgızistan 3-1 Katar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 25 Mar 2025

📅25/03/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
52%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.26
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 28% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
10%
1/X
3%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
19%
+4.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
52%
Away Win
57%
-5.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kırgızistan EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Katar EU Bookmakers 61%
+60% / +60% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
0.68/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/0.66
+13% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / -32%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
261 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 78%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.6
13.0 Crosses 29.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kırgızistan
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Katar
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.38 xG 2.86
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 30
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 10
232 Passes 444
80% Pass Accuracy 90%
4 Box Touches 27
8 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.10.2024 Katar Katar 3-1 HT 1-0 Kırgızistan Kırgızistan DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kırgızistan
3-1
AWAY Katar
0.71 xG 0.60
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
322 Passes 398
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kırgızistan vs Katar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kırgızistan got the better of Katar 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Katar at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Kırgızistan had 45% of the ball to Katar's 55%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 0.71 to 0.60.

What was the final score of Kırgızistan vs Katar?

Kırgızistan 3-1 Katar in the World Cup Qualifiers on 25/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kırgızistan vs Katar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Katar win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Kırgızistan 23%, draw 25%, Katar 52%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Katar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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