İsveç 5-1 Kuzey İrlanda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Mar 2025

📅25/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.82
Over 2.5
42%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.11
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 31% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.06
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.25
X/1
16%
4.01
X/2
10%
10.4
X/X
12%
5.12
2/1
11%
23.85
2/2
9%
8.76
2/X
8%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-6.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.0pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İsveç EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Kuzey İrlanda EU Bookmakers 21%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.57/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.51
-1% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +50%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
480 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
18.7 Crosses 7.7
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İsveç
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Kuzey İrlanda
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
17.10.2007 İsveç İsveç 1-1 HT 1-0 Kuzey İrlanda Kuzey İrlanda AVR
28.03.2007 Kuzey İrlanda Kuzey İrlanda 2-1 HT 1-1 İsveç İsveç AVR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İsveç
5-1
AWAY Kuzey İrlanda
3.02 xG 1.06
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
507 Passes 326
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
37 Box Touches 11
12 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH İsveç vs Kuzey İrlanda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İsveç ran out comfortable winners over Kuzey İrlanda 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had İsveç as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İsveç had 59% of the ball to Kuzey İrlanda's 41%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 3.02 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Kuzey İrlanda led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for İsveç and 1.50 for Kuzey İrlanda.

What was the final score of İsveç vs Kuzey İrlanda?

İsveç 5-1 Kuzey İrlanda in the Friendlies on 25/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İsveç vs Kuzey İrlanda?

Before kick-off our model rated a İsveç win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split İsveç 51%, draw 25%, Kuzey İrlanda 24%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İsveç) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İsveç) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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