Polonya U21 3-2 Ukrayna U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Mar 2025

📅25/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.35
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 25% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.6pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonya U21 EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Ukrayna U21 EU Bookmakers 43%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.33/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.06
-8% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
311 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
6.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
9.0 Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 0.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonya U21
3-2
AWAY Ukrayna U21
2.28 xG 1.60
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
320 Passes 391
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Polonya U21 vs Ukrayna U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonya U21 nicked a narrow win over Ukrayna U21 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ukrayna U21 at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Polonya U21 had 46% of the ball to Ukrayna U21's 54%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 2.28 to 1.60.

What was the final score of Polonya U21 vs Ukrayna U21?

Polonya U21 3-2 Ukrayna U21 in the Friendlies on 25/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonya U21 vs Ukrayna U21?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ukrayna U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Polonya U21 33%, draw 26%, Ukrayna U21 41%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ukrayna U21), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ukrayna U21) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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