İsviçre 3-1 Lüksemburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Mar 2025

📅25/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.25
Draw
19%
5.15
Away
13%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.1
Over 2.5
60%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.4
No
58%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.0
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.16
6+ Goals
13%
10.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 26.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
49%
1.4
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
26.0
X/1
12%
3.54
X/2
4%
24.3
X/X
6%
7.69
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
4%
23.4
2/X
7%
31.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
İsviçre win — 68%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
75%
-7.5pp
19%
Draw
16%
+3.3pp
13%
Away Win
8%
+4.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-3.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+3.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
38%
+5.0pp
58%
BTTS No
62%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İsviçre EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Lüksemburg EU Bookmakers 11%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.81/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/1.60
+46% / +95% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -91% / +9%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
512 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 75%
31.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
16.0 Crosses 9.9
0.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İsviçre
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Lüksemburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
5 Corners 3
15.11.2011 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg 0-1 HT 0-1 İsviçre İsviçre HAZ
10.10.2009 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg 0-3 HT 0-3 İsviçre İsviçre DKE
10.09.2008 İsviçre İsviçre 1-2 HT 1-1 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İsviçre
3-1
AWAY Lüksemburg
3.45 xG 1.49
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 6
428 Passes 342
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH İsviçre vs Lüksemburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İsviçre got the better of Lüksemburg 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had İsviçre as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, İsviçre had 56% of the ball to Lüksemburg's 44%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 3.45 to 1.49.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, İsviçre had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for İsviçre and 0.67 for Lüksemburg.

What was the final score of İsviçre vs Lüksemburg?

İsviçre 3-1 Lüksemburg in the Friendlies on 25/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İsviçre vs Lüksemburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a İsviçre win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split İsviçre 68%, draw 19%, Lüksemburg 13%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İsviçre), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İsviçre) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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