Almanya U21 3-1 İspanya U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Mar 2025

📅25/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
38%
3.28
Away
26%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.86
Over 2.5
41%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.21
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.44
6+ Goals
7%
13.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.37
1/2
4%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
11%
5.31
X/2
4%
6.13
X/X
19%
4.62
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
18%
4.22
2/X EV+ ✗
13%
13.1
Value flag · 2/X at 13.1 — our 13% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Draw Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.3pp
38%
Draw
27%
+11.1pp
26%
Away Win
33%
-6.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
50%
+8.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
50%
-8.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almanya U21 EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY İspanya U21 EU Bookmakers 37%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.25/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.13
-20% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almanya U21
1W-2D-3L
AWAY İspanya U21
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.94 xG 1.10
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
420 Passes 445
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.10.2019 İspanya U21 İspanya U21 1-1 HT 1-1 Almanya U21 Almanya U21 HAZ
30.06.2019 İspanya U21 İspanya U21 2-1 HT 1-0 Almanya U21 Almanya U21 U21
30.06.2017 Almanya U21 Almanya U21 1-0 HT 1-0 İspanya U21 İspanya U21 U21
04.03.2014 İspanya U21 İspanya U21 2-0 HT 0-0 Almanya U21 Almanya U21 HAZ
09.06.2013 Almanya U21 Almanya U21 0-1 HT 0-0 İspanya U21 İspanya U21 U21
15.06.2009 İspanya U21 İspanya U21 0-0 HT 0-0 Almanya U21 Almanya U21 U21
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almanya U21
3-1
AWAY İspanya U21
1.28 xG 0.45
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
357 Passes 398
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 11
10 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Almanya U21 vs İspanya U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almanya U21 saw off İspanya U21 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 38% / 26% — and on the day Almanya U21 made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Almanya U21 had 48% of the ball to İspanya U21's 52%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.28 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, İspanya U21 led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Almanya U21 and 1.00 for İspanya U21.

What was the final score of Almanya U21 vs İspanya U21?

Almanya U21 3-1 İspanya U21 in the Friendlies on 25/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almanya U21 vs İspanya U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Almanya U21 36%, draw 38%, İspanya U21 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Draw), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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