Leixoes U23 2-1 Rio Ave U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 25 Mar 2025

📅25/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.76
No
58%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+4.6pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.0pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leixoes U23 EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave U23 EU Bookmakers 37%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.07/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.63
-31% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
322 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leixoes U23
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Rio Ave U23
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2025 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 1-1 HT 1-1 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 PORU23
26.11.2024 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 0-1 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 UŞGA
28.08.2024 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 4-1 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 UŞGA
04.03.2024 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 3-2 HT 0-1 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 PORU23
16.01.2024 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 1-1 HT 0-1 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leixoes U23
2-1
AWAY Rio Ave U23
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Leixoes U23 vs Rio Ave U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leixoes U23 squeezed past Rio Ave U23 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Leixoes U23 as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leixoes U23 had 40% of the ball to Rio Ave U23's 60%, shots finished 7-4.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Rio Ave U23 led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Leixoes U23 and 2.00 for Rio Ave U23.

What was the final score of Leixoes U23 vs Rio Ave U23?

Leixoes U23 2-1 Rio Ave U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 25/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leixoes U23 vs Rio Ave U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leixoes U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Leixoes U23 45%, draw 24%, Rio Ave U23 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leixoes U23) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leixoes U23) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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