Pergolettese 2-1 Pro Patria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.45
Over 2.5
42%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.44
No
54%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.01
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
5.89
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-10.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
30%
Away Win
18%
+11.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
65%
-7.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
35%
+7.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
37%
+8.7pp
54%
BTTS No
63%
-8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pergolettese EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Pro Patria EU Bookmakers 21%
-52% / -52% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -1%
0.96/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.13
-40% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
208 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 219 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pergolettese
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Pro Patria
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 Pro Patria Pro Patria 1-1 HT 1-1 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
11.08.2024 Pro Patria Pro Patria 1-0 HT 1-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTCK
10.02.2024 Pro Patria Pro Patria 2-0 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
29.09.2023 Pergolettese Pergolettese 0-1 HT 0-1 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
18.02.2023 Pro Patria Pro Patria 1-2 HT 1-1 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
19.10.2022 Pergolettese Pergolettese 3-2 HT 1-1 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pergolettese
2-1
AWAY Pro Patria
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pergolettese vs Pro Patria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pergolettese nicked a narrow win over Pro Patria 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pergolettese as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pergolettese had 47% of the ball to Pro Patria's 53%, shots finished 8-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pro Patria led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pergolettese and 1.33 for Pro Patria.

What was the final score of Pergolettese vs Pro Patria?

Pergolettese 2-1 Pro Patria in the Italy - Serie C on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pergolettese vs Pro Patria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pergolettese win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Pergolettese 43%, draw 27%, Pro Patria 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pergolettese) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pergolettese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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