Bastia 2-3 Grenoble — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 25 Apr 2025

Bastia
2-3 HT 1-1
Grenoble
📅25/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Bastia vs Grenoble Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.59
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.81
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.95
X/1
20%
3.93
X/2
8%
13.15
X/X
9%
5.97
2/1
6%
22.9
2/2
5%
11.2
2/X EV+ ✗
8%
19.5
Value flag · 2/X at 19.5 — our 8% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
64%
-5.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.0pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+3.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.4pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bastia v Grenoble — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bastia EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Grenoble EU Bookmakers 18%
+9% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
2.08/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.65
+33% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
20.4 Crosses 13.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Bastia vs Grenoble Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bastia
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Grenoble
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.33 xG 1.12
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
320 Passes 361
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.01.2025 Grenoble Grenoble 3-2 HT 1-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
02.03.2024 Bastia Bastia 1-0 HT 1-0 Grenoble Grenoble FR2
02.09.2023 Grenoble Grenoble 0-0 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
28.01.2023 Grenoble Grenoble 0-1 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
13.08.2022 Bastia Bastia 3-0 HT 2-0 Grenoble Grenoble FR2
19.03.2022 Grenoble Grenoble 1-1 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2

Bastia 2-3 Grenoble — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bastia
2-3
AWAY Grenoble
1.48 xG 1.62
67% Ball Possession 33%
23 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
470 Passes 209
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 25
31 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bastia vs Grenoble
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grenoble squeezed past Bastia 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Bastia carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Bastia had 67% of the ball to Grenoble's 33%, shots finished 23-12, expected goals 1.48 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bastia and 0.67 for Grenoble.

What was the final score of Bastia vs Grenoble?

Bastia 2-3 Grenoble in the France - Ligue 2 on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bastia vs Grenoble?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Bastia 58%, draw 23%, Grenoble 18%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Bastia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bastia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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