25/04/2025
·
20:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
1-0
Aubagne vs Chateauroux Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78
— our 30% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
27%
Draw
27%
34%
Away Win
33%
57%
Under 2.5
54%
43%
Over 2.5
46%
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
52%
BTTS No
49%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aubagne v Chateauroux — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Aubagne
EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY
Chateauroux
EU Bookmakers 37%
-18% /
-18%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-4% /
-2%
1.00/1.20
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.25/1.26
-22%
/
-11%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+4%
/
-9%
48%
Ball Possession
52%
11
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
5
300 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
384 · 80%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
2.0
Yellow Cards
2.1
Aubagne vs Chateauroux Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Aubagne
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Chateauroux
7.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
53%
Ball Possession
47%
16
Total Shots
8
12
Shots on Target
3
8
Corners
5
1
Yellow Cards
3
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Aubagne vs Chateauroux
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Aubagne cruised past Chateauroux 6-2. Half-time: 3-1. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Aubagne found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Aubagne vs Chateauroux?
Aubagne 6-2 Chateauroux in the France - National League 1 on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aubagne vs Chateauroux?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aubagne win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Aubagne 38%, draw 27%, Chateauroux 34%. The final score 6-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aubagne) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Aubagne)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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More France - National League 1
25 Apr 2025