BFC Daugavpils 2-0 Metta / LU Riga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.78
Over 2.5
54%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-2.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.6pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Metta / LU Riga EU Bookmakers 25%
+23% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / +2%
1.98/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.68
+56% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
269 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
16.3 Crosses 16.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Metta / LU Riga
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.49 xG 1.24
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
218 Passes 354
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
27.09.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
07.07.2024 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 3-2 HT 2-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
16.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-0 HT 3-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
03.04.2024 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-1 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
29.09.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-2 HT 1-2 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
10.07.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2-0
AWAY Metta / LU Riga
0.96 xG 0.97
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
371 Passes 319
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils got the better of Metta / LU Riga 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 53% of the ball to Metta / LU Riga's 47%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 0.96 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.00 for Metta / LU Riga.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga?

BFC Daugavpils 2-0 Metta / LU Riga in the Latvia - Virsliga on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 49%, draw 25%, Metta / LU Riga 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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