Uniao Santarem 2-0 Lusitania — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao Santarem EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania EU Bookmakers 29%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.26/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/0.64
-6% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -67% / +101%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao Santarem
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Lusitania
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.03.2025 Lusitania Lusitania 1-1 HT 1-1 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
19.01.2025 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem 1-0 HT 0-0 Lusitania Lusitania POR3
06.10.2024 Lusitania Lusitania 1-2 HT 1-1 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao Santarem
2-0
AWAY Lusitania
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Uniao Santarem vs Lusitania
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao Santarem got the better of Lusitania 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Uniao Santarem as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Uniao Santarem had 53% of the ball to Lusitania's 47%, shots finished 11-4.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Uniao Santarem had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Uniao Santarem and 0.67 for Lusitania.

What was the final score of Uniao Santarem vs Lusitania?

Uniao Santarem 2-0 Lusitania in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao Santarem vs Lusitania?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao Santarem win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Uniao Santarem 46%, draw 26%, Lusitania 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao Santarem), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Uniao Santarem) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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