Oliveira Hospital 1-0 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oliveira Hospital EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.61/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.27
+27% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oliveira Hospital
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 5
23.02.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 0-1 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital POR3
19.01.2025 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
05.10.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-0 HT 1-0 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital POR3
13.01.2024 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital 2-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
01.10.2023 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-3 HT 0-1 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oliveira Hospital
1-0
AWAY Sporting Covilha
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 9
POST-MATCH Oliveira Hospital vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oliveira Hospital squeezed past Sporting Covilha 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Oliveira Hospital as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Oliveira Hospital had 38% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 62%, shots finished 7-6.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Oliveira Hospital and 0.80 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Oliveira Hospital vs Sporting Covilha?

Oliveira Hospital 1-0 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oliveira Hospital vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oliveira Hospital win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Oliveira Hospital 41%, draw 28%, Sporting Covilha 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oliveira Hospital), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Oliveira Hospital) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
25 Apr 2025
17:00 Caldas vs Academica Analysis →
17:00 Uniao Santarem vs Lusitania Analysis →