Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.98
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
16%
4.1
X/2
6%
10.5
X/X
9%
5.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.4
2/2
7%
8.29
2/X
6%
16.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.4 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
59%
+0.2pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.6pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.65/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.46
-24% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
22.0 Crosses 17.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Watford
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.47 xG 1.15
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
458 Passes 357
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2025 Watford Watford 3-0 HT 2-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
15.02.2025 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNCL
05.10.2024 Watford Watford 2-1 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
04.05.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-1 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
30.09.2023 Watford Watford 2-3 HT 1-2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
28.01.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 2-0 Watford Watford İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
5-1
AWAY Watford
2.30 xG 0.85
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
482 Passes 370
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough cruised past Watford 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 56% of the ball to Watford's 44%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 2.30 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.50 for Watford.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Watford?

Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford in the England - Championship on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 60%, draw 21%, Watford 19%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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