Middlesbrough 3-1 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
32%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.38
Over 2.5
48%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.53
No
56%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.17
2-3 Goals
42%
1.97
4-5 Goals
20%
2.72
6+ Goals
9%
6.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.17 — our 29% vs market 14.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.22
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
16%
4.37
X/2
10%
8.96
X/X
7%
6.16
2/1
9%
20.2
2/2
13%
5.92
2/X
10%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-9.0pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+7.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+14.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-14.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
61%
-16.9pp
56%
BTTS No
39%
+16.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 28%
-4% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +15%
1.62/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.42
-9% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 71%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
21.4 Crosses 15.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Watford
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 1.05
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
292 Passes 310
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Watford Watford 2-3 HT 1-2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
28.01.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 2-0 Watford Watford İNCL
30.08.2022 Watford Watford 2-1 HT 1-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
05.04.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNCL
11.09.2020 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
14.01.2017 Watford Watford 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
3-1
AWAY Watford
2.20 xG 1.05
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
501 Passes 392
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough saw off Watford 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 55% of the ball to Watford's 45%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 2.20 to 1.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.00 for Watford.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Watford?

Middlesbrough 3-1 Watford in the England - Championship on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 44%, draw 24%, Watford 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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