Leeds United 1-2 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 May 2024

Leeds United
1-2 HT 1-2
Southampton
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Leeds United vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.5
No
55%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.67
2-3 Goals
42%
2.02
4-5 Goals
21%
2.62
6+ Goals
11%
6.17
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.67 — our 26% vs market 13.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.03
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
19%
4.31
X/2
9%
10.4
X/X
9%
6.37
2/1
6%
19.85
2/2
10%
6.82
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-2.4pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.0pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+14.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-14.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
62%
-17.6pp
55%
BTTS No
38%
+17.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leeds United v Southampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leeds United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 24%
-4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
2.07/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.30/2.04
+21% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -82% / -67%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
408 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
22.4 Crosses 12.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 0.0

Leeds United vs Southampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leeds United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Southampton
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.14 xG 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
359 Passes 285
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Southampton Southampton 3-1 HT 3-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
25.02.2023 Leeds United Leeds United 1-0 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
13.08.2022 Southampton Southampton 2-2 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
02.04.2022 Leeds United Leeds United 1-1 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
16.10.2021 Southampton Southampton 1-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
18.05.2021 Southampton Southampton 0-2 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNP

Leeds United 1-2 Southampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leeds United
1-2
AWAY Southampton
0.94 xG 1.14
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
491 Passes 362
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
40 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leeds United vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southampton nicked a narrow win over Leeds United 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Leeds United at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leeds United had 57% of the ball to Southampton's 43%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.94 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leeds United and 1.17 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Leeds United vs Southampton?

Leeds United 1-2 Southampton in the England - Championship on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leeds United vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Leeds United 54%, draw 22%, Southampton 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leeds United) ✗ BTTS No
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