Stoke City 4-0 Bristol City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.1
Over 2.5
41%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.56
No
56%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
3.04
6+ Goals
9%
9.48
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 31% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.73
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
13%
4.51
X/2
8%
7.37
X/X
13%
4.6
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
22%
5.44
2/X
9%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
43%
-8.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+6.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
44%
+14.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
56%
-14.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
60%
-15.9pp
56%
BTTS No
40%
+15.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stoke City EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol City EU Bookmakers 33%
-13% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.23/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.42
-24% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
359 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
23.8 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stoke City
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Bristol City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.02 xG 1.02
55% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
328 Passes 252
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Bristol City Bristol City 2-3 HT 2-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
07.04.2023 Stoke City Stoke City 1-2 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
17.12.2022 Bristol City Bristol City 1-2 HT 1-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
15.04.2022 Stoke City Stoke City 0-1 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
24.11.2021 Bristol City Bristol City 1-0 HT 1-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
02.04.2021 Bristol City Bristol City 0-2 HT 0-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stoke City
4-0
AWAY Bristol City
2.16 xG 1.01
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
477 Passes 331
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
38 Box Touches 15
8 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Stoke City vs Bristol City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City ran out comfortable winners over Bristol City 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Stoke City found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Stoke City had 57% of the ball to Bristol City's 43%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 2.16 to 1.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stoke City and 1.17 for Bristol City.

What was the final score of Stoke City vs Bristol City?

Stoke City 4-0 Bristol City in the England - Championship on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stoke City vs Bristol City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bristol City win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 35%, draw 29%, Bristol City 36%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Bristol City), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bristol City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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