Watford 2-1 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
40%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.33
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.97
6+ Goals
8%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.33 — our 29% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.97
1/2
7%
22.3
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
11%
7.41
X/2
13%
4.69
X/X
15%
5.39
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
20%
2.63
2/X
7%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.6pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
40%
Away Win
46%
-6.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.9pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Watford EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 50%
+7% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.50/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.14
+26% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -16%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
264 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 81%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
21.2 Crosses 19.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Watford
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.04 xG 1.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
333 Passes 321
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.05.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-1 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
30.09.2023 Watford Watford 2-3 HT 1-2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
28.01.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 2-0 Watford Watford İNCL
30.08.2022 Watford Watford 2-1 HT 1-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
05.04.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNCL
11.09.2020 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Watford
2-1
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.01 xG 1.82
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
294 Passes 520
83% Pass Accuracy 90%
14 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Watford vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Watford squeezed past Middlesbrough 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 29% / 40%) promised a tight game; Watford found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Watford had 38% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 62%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.01 to 1.82 — on chances, Middlesbrough could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Watford and 1.67 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Watford vs Middlesbrough?

Watford 2-1 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Watford vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Watford 31%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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