Derby County 2-0 Queens Park Rangers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 5 Oct 2024

Derby County
2-0 HT 0-0
Queens Park Rangers
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.83
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
19.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 33% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.16
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.05
X/1
19%
4.63
X/2
12%
6.16
X/X
8%
4.36
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
13%
4.7
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.9pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.6pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Queens Park Rangers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Queens Park Rangers EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -20%
1.33/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.21
-2% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
340 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 71%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
19.0 Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Derby County vs Queens Park Rangers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Queens Park Rangers
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.79 xG 1.28
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
349 Passes 351
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.04.2022 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
29.11.2021 Derby County Derby County 1-2 HT 1-0 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers İNCL
23.01.2021 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers 0-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
04.11.2020 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-0 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers İNCL
25.02.2020 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers 2-1 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
30.11.2019 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-1 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers İNCL

Derby County 2-0 Queens Park Rangers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
2-0
AWAY Queens Park Rangers
1.01 xG 0.52
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 9
369 Passes 308
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Queens Park Rangers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County beat Queens Park Rangers 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Derby County had 53% of the ball to Queens Park Rangers's 47%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.01 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Queens Park Rangers led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Derby County and 1.17 for Queens Park Rangers.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Queens Park Rangers?

Derby County 2-0 Queens Park Rangers in the England - Championship on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Queens Park Rangers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Derby County 44%, draw 24%, Queens Park Rangers 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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