SGV Freiberg 1-2 Mainz 05 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.44/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.74
-20% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Mainz 05 II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
25.10.2025 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 2-1 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
05.04.2025 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 0-1 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
05.10.2024 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-2 HT 2-2 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
27.04.2024 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 0-2 HT 0-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
21.10.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
08.04.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 4-0 HT 3-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Mainz 05 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 II nicked a narrow win over SGV Freiberg 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was SGV Freiberg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 II led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.33 for Mainz 05 II.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Mainz 05 II?

SGV Freiberg 1-2 Mainz 05 II in the Germany - Regional League on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Mainz 05 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 42%, draw 27%, Mainz 05 II 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (SGV Freiberg), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ALMBÖL More Germany - Regional League
25 Apr 2026
14:30 Weiche Flensburg vs Schöningen Analysis →
15:00 St. Pauli II vs Hannover 96 II Analysis →
15:00 Phönix Lübeck vs Jeddeloh Analysis →
15:00 Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Wuppertaler SV Analysis →
15:00 Velbert vs Köln II Analysis →
15:00 Eichstatt vs Illertissen Analysis →