Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 Apr 2026

Lechia Gdansk
1-2 HT 1-1
Rakow Czestochowa
📅25/04/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow Czestochowa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.27
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
14%
5.34
X/2
13%
6.11
X/X
10%
5.03
2/1
7%
24.8
2/2
12%
4.04
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.5pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lechia Gdansk v Rakow Czestochowa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -13%
1.75/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.20
+23% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
20.6 Crosses 16.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow Czestochowa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.48 xG 1.78
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
347 Passes 295
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.10.2025 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 HT 1-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
03.03.2025 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 3-1 HT 2-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
23.08.2024 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-2 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
28.04.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 4-0 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
15.10.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-3 HT 0-2 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
21.05.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 3-0 HT 2-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL

Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Rakow Czestochowa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
1-2
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
1.77 xG 1.60
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
276 Passes 317
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa squeezed past Lechia Gdansk 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Rakow Czestochowa made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 49% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 51%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.77 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 2.83 for Rakow Czestochowa.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 40%, draw 26%, Rakow Czestochowa 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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