Tondela 0-2 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 25 Apr 2026

Tondela
0-2 HT 0-2
Nacional
📅25/04/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Tondela vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
33%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.08
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.54
6+ Goals
8%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.04
1/2
9%
27.5
1/X
11%
13.05
X/1
13%
5.9
X/2
11%
5.4
X/X
10%
4.49
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
13%
3.52
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+4.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
33%
Away Win
38%
-5.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tondela v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 42%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.35/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.58
+2% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
269 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
21.5 Crosses 22.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Tondela vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.46 xG 0.91
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
282 Passes 280
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2025 Nacional Nacional 3-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR
12.05.2024 Tondela Tondela 2-3 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
06.01.2024 Nacional Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
29.01.2023 Tondela Tondela 1-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
09.11.2022 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POK
06.08.2022 Nacional Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR2

Tondela 0-2 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
0-2
AWAY Nacional
1.56 xG 1.32
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 7
370 Passes 184
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
36 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional got the better of Tondela 2-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Nacional made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Tondela had 62% of the ball to Nacional's 38%, shots finished 22-17, expected goals 1.56 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tondela and 1.33 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Nacional?

Tondela 0-2 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tondela 40%, draw 28%, Nacional 33%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tondela), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tondela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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