Libertad 0-1 Macara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Macara EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +1%
1.40/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.01
+42% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 76%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
23.0 Crosses 17.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Macara
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.48 xG 1.10
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
233 Passes 216
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-0 Macara Macara EKV1
16.03.2024 Macara Macara 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
0-1
AWAY Macara
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Macara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macara squeezed past Libertad 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Libertad had 60% of the ball to Macara's 40%, shots finished 10-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Macara led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Libertad and 2.00 for Macara.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Macara?

Libertad 0-1 Macara in the Ecuador - Premier on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Macara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Libertad 41%, draw 28%, Macara 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Libertad) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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