Orense 2-1 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 25 May 2025

Orense
2-1 HT 2-0
Aucas
📅25/05/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
18%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.18/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.18
-31% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +37%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
289 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 74%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.7 Crosses 16.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Aucas
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.99 xG 0.96
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
300 Passes 234
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
03.08.2024 Orense Orense 4-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
02.03.2024 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
04.12.2023 Orense Orense 1-2 HT 1-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
24.06.2023 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
09.07.2022 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
20.02.2022 Orense Orense 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
2-1
AWAY Aucas
0.52 xG 1.44
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
269 Passes 291
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
10 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orense vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense edged past Aucas 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Orense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orense had 48% of the ball to Aucas's 52%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.52 to 1.44 — on chances, Aucas could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Orense and 1.50 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Orense vs Aucas?

Orense 2-1 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Orense 40%, draw 29%, Aucas 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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