Fagiano Okayama 2-2 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.32
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.51
Over 2.5
44%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.32
6+ Goals
7%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.99
1/2
11%
33.0
1/X
9%
15.25
X/1
12%
7.07
X/2
13%
4.59
X/X
11%
3.68
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
20%
3.1
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
26%
+2.2pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.5pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 48%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.30/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.67
+37% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +65%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 79%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
21.5 Crosses 17.8
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
177 Passes 377
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.08.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-3 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
07.05.2023 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-1 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
04.09.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-0 HT 1-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
13.03.2022 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 3-1 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
14.08.2021 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
05.05.2021 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-2 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
2-2
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.94 xG 1.32
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
195 Passes 264
65% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 25
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama and Machida Zelvia shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Machida Zelvia at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 43% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 57%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.94 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.67 for Machida Zelvia.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia?

Fagiano Okayama 2-2 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 29%, draw 27%, Machida Zelvia 44%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
25 May 2025
08:00 Shimizu S-Pulse vs Vissel Kobe Analysis →
08:00 Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kashima Antlers Analysis →
08:00 Yokohama FC vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →
08:00 Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare Analysis →
09:00 FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis →
09:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Kyoto Sanga Analysis →