Albirex Niigata 2-1 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.77
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.05
6+ Goals
9%
19.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.28
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
14%
5.02
X/2
12%
6.47
X/X
11%
4.29
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
13%
4.85
2/X
8%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 33%
-12% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +14%
1.09/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.39
-10% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
18.8 Crosses 15.4
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.61 xG 1.67
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
511 Passes 307
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 3-1 HT 2-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
19.05.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-1 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
12.08.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-2 HT 0-2 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
03.06.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-2 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
09.07.2016 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
27.02.2016 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-2 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
2-1
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
2.02 xG 0.38
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
432 Passes 471
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata edged past Shonan Bellmare 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Albirex Niigata as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 48% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 52%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 2.02 to 0.38 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Albirex Niigata's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.50 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare?

Albirex Niigata 2-1 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 42%, draw 26%, Shonan Bellmare 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Albirex Niigata) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
25 May 2025
07:00 Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →
08:00 Shimizu S-Pulse vs Vissel Kobe Analysis →
08:00 Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kashima Antlers Analysis →
08:00 Yokohama FC vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →
09:00 FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis →
09:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Kyoto Sanga Analysis →