Maribor 0-1 Nafta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.33
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.19
2-3 Goals
42%
2.1
4-5 Goals
24%
2.44
6+ Goals
16%
4.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
70%
-10.8pp
23%
Draw
17%
+5.9pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+4.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maribor EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Nafta EU Bookmakers 16%
+5% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
2.51/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/2.31
+13% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / -6%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maribor
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Nafta
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.04.2025 Nafta Nafta 1-1 HT 0-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
08.12.2024 Maribor Maribor 4-0 HT 1-0 Nafta Nafta SLVN
22.09.2024 Nafta Nafta 0-3 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
16.01.2024 Maribor Maribor 0-3 HT 0-1 Nafta Nafta HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maribor
0-1
AWAY Nafta
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maribor vs Nafta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nafta nicked a narrow win over Maribor 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Maribor at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maribor had 61% of the ball to Nafta's 39%, shots finished 14-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Maribor had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Maribor and 1.00 for Nafta.

What was the final score of Maribor vs Nafta?

Maribor 0-1 Nafta in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maribor vs Nafta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Maribor 60%, draw 23%, Nafta 17%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Maribor) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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