Ilves Tampere 2-1 Austria Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
40%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 26% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
29%
+8.6pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
40%
Away Win
46%
-6.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.7pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Austria Wien EU Bookmakers 50%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -66% / -66%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -44%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
Crosses 19.0
Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
2-1
AWAY Austria Wien
1.39 xG 1.53
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 11
247 Passes 458
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 36
3 Crosses 42
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs Austria Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere squeezed past Austria Wien 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 23% / 40%) promised a tight game; Ilves Tampere found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 35% of the ball to Austria Wien's 65%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.39 to 1.53.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs Austria Wien?

Ilves Tampere 2-1 Austria Wien in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs Austria Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated an Austria Wien win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 37%, draw 23%, Austria Wien 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Austria Wien) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Austria Wien) ✓ Over 2.5
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