Sumqayıt 1-2 MOL Fehervar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
34%
+6.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sumqayıt
1-2
AWAY MOL Fehervar
0.31 xG 1.72
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
374 Passes 390
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 30
7 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sumqayıt vs MOL Fehervar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MOL Fehervar nicked a narrow win over Sumqayıt 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day MOL Fehervar made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sumqayıt had 50% of the ball to MOL Fehervar's 50%, shots finished 8-22, expected goals 0.31 to 1.72 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold MOL Fehervar's control.

What was the final score of Sumqayıt vs MOL Fehervar?

Sumqayıt 1-2 MOL Fehervar in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sumqayıt vs MOL Fehervar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sumqayıt win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sumqayıt 40%, draw 27%, MOL Fehervar 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sumqayıt) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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