Milsami 1-1 FC Astana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
3.46
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
32%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.13
6+ Goals
7%
19.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 38% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
26%
+13.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
32%
Away Win
47%
-15.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.1pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milsami EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Astana EU Bookmakers 51%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-43% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
250 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milsami
1-1
AWAY FC Astana
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milsami vs FC Astana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milsami and FC Astana couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Milsami had 50% of the ball to FC Astana's 50%, shots finished 10-11.

What was the final score of Milsami vs FC Astana?

Milsami 1-1 FC Astana in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milsami vs FC Astana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milsami win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Milsami 40%, draw 28%, FC Astana 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Milsami), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milsami) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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