Atmosfera 4-1 Hegelmann II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 25 Jul 2026

📅25/07/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.25
Draw
14%
5.28
Away
15%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
Over 2.5
54%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
51%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
3%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
75%
-4.0pp
14%
Draw
16%
-2.0pp
15%
Away Win
9%
+6.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atmosfera EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann II EU Bookmakers 12%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +14%
1.62/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/2.50
-28% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
406 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atmosfera
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Hegelmann II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2026 Hegelmann II 0-3 HT 0-2 Atmosfera Atmosfera LIT1
27.07.2025 Atmosfera Atmosfera 2-2 HT 1-0 Hegelmann II LIT1
16.03.2025 Hegelmann II 1-1 Atmosfera Atmosfera LIT1
31.08.2024 Atmosfera Atmosfera 2-1 Hegelmann II LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atmosfera
4-1
AWAY Hegelmann II
16 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atmosfera vs Hegelmann II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atmosfera swept aside Hegelmann II 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atmosfera as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, shots finished 16-6.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Atmosfera had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atmosfera and 1.00 for Hegelmann II.

What was the final score of Atmosfera vs Hegelmann II?

Atmosfera 4-1 Hegelmann II in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 25/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atmosfera vs Hegelmann II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atmosfera win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Atmosfera 71%, draw 14%, Hegelmann II 15%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atmosfera), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atmosfera) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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