Tijuana 1-0 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Jul 2026

Tijuana
1-0 HT 0-0
Leon
📅25/07/2026 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.15
6+ Goals
11%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 27% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +13%
1.60/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.38
+6% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
20.6 Crosses 14.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Leon
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.50 xG 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
354 Passes 338
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2026 Leon Leon 0-3 HT 0-3 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
20.09.2025 Tijuana Tijuana 5-0 HT 3-0 Leon Leon MEK
02.03.2025 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
31.08.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
04.03.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
24.09.2023 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
1-0
AWAY Leon
1.93 xG 0.88
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 10
287 Passes 485
16 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Tijuana vs Leon
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Tijuana edged past Leon 1-0 in the Mexico - Primera on 25 Jul 2026. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.93 to 0.88.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tijuana have the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tijuana and 0.83 for Leon.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Leon?

Tijuana 1-0 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 25/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 49%, draw 26%, Leon 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tijuana), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tijuana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
25 Jul 2026
06:00 Atlante vs Club America Analysis →