Palmeiras 5-0 Cuiaba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.47
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
25%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.16
No
54%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.99
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
17.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 29% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
18.65
X/1
22%
3.44
X/2
10%
13.45
X/X
9%
5.17
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
9%
11.9
2/X
7%
19.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
64%
-12.4pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.2pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+10.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +23%
1.93/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.21
+7% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +34%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
406 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
26.2 Crosses 17.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Cuiaba
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.07 xG 0.90
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
362 Passes 294
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.05.2024 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-2 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
20.08.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-2 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
15.04.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 1-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
07.11.2022 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-1 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
19.07.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
01.12.2021 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-3 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
5-0
AWAY Cuiaba
2.61 xG 0.81
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
385 Passes 287
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Cuiaba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras cruised past Cuiaba 5-0. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 58% of the ball to Cuiaba's 42%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.61 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Palmeiras and 0.50 for Cuiaba.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?

Palmeiras 5-0 Cuiaba in the Brazil - Serie A on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 51%, draw 24%, Cuiaba 24%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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