St Patricks 1-0 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.92
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.99
6+ Goals
7%
18.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.31
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.1
X/1
16%
4.96
X/2
6%
6.17
X/X
12%
4.21
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
18%
4.51
2/X
8%
13.3
Value flag · 1/X at 13.1 — our 10% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.6pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-2.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St Patricks EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +14%
0.85/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.79
-21% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +29%
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 68%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
21.2 Crosses 18.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St Patricks
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Derry City
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.77 xG 1.62
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
346 Passes 359
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.07.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 0-0 St Patricks St Patricks İRK
17.05.2024 St Patricks St Patricks 0-1 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
22.04.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-1 HT 1-0 St Patricks St Patricks İRL
01.03.2024 Derry City Derry City 2-1 HT 0-0 St Patricks St Patricks İRL
03.11.2023 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 2-0 St Patricks St Patricks İRL
20.08.2023 Derry City Derry City 0-0 HT 0-0 St Patricks St Patricks İRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St Patricks
1-0
AWAY Derry City
0.63 xG 1.11
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
288 Passes 265
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH St Patricks vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St Patricks squeezed past Derry City 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had St Patricks as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, St Patricks had 51% of the ball to Derry City's 49%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 0.63 to 1.11 — on chances, Derry City could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for St Patricks and 2.00 for Derry City.

What was the final score of St Patricks vs Derry City?

St Patricks 1-0 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St Patricks vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated a St Patricks win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split St Patricks 41%, draw 30%, Derry City 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St Patricks), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St Patricks) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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