Goias 1-0 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 25 Nov 2024

📅25/11/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
31%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.03
No
62%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
39%
2.35
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
5.27
6+ Goals
8%
32.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.35 — our 39% vs market 36.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
35%
+6.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
30%
Away Win
36%
-5.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
45%
-6.8pp
62%
BTTS No
55%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Goias EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 39%
+10% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -18%
1.50/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/0.88
+53% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +23%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
266 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.6 Crosses 25.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Goias
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Novorizontino
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.10 xG 0.94
62% Ball Possession 38%
5 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
431 Passes 203
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
11 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
05.08.2024 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-1 HT 1-0 Goias Goias BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Goias
1-0
AWAY Novorizontino
0.46 xG 1.54
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 12
229 Passes 222
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
9 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 36
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Goias vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Goias squeezed past Novorizontino 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Goias as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Goias had 50% of the ball to Novorizontino's 50%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 0.46 to 1.54 — on chances, Novorizontino could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Goias vs Novorizontino?

Goias 1-0 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 25/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Goias vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Goias win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Goias 41%, draw 28%, Novorizontino 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Goias), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Goias) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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