Sport Recife 2-1 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 25 Nov 2024

📅25/11/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
22%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.27
No
56%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.08
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.89
6+ Goals
8%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-14.3pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.6pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+9.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.9pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 15%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+36% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.3 Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Santos
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.10 xG 1.11
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
280 Passes 388
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.08.2024 Santos Santos 1-1 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
18.10.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
01.07.2021 Santos Santos 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
28.11.2020 Santos Santos 4-2 HT 2-2 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
21.08.2020 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
02.12.2018 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-1 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
2-1
AWAY Santos
2.72 xG 0.84
45% Ball Possession 55%
19 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
188 Passes 243
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 4
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife squeezed past Santos 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sport Recife as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sport Recife had 45% of the ball to Santos's 55%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.72 to 0.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sport Recife's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sport Recife and 1.17 for Santos.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Santos?

Sport Recife 2-1 Santos in the Brazil - Serie B on 25/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 52%, draw 26%, Santos 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sport Recife) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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