Mirassol FC 1-0 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 25 Nov 2024

📅25/11/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.22
Draw
24%
5.15
Away
17%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
3.59
No
66%
1.24
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.96
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
4.04
6+ Goals
8%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 32% vs market 28.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
78%
-18.6pp
24%
Draw
16%
+7.9pp
16%
Away Win
6%
+10.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.7pp
34%
BTTS Yes
24%
+10.0pp
66%
BTTS No
76%
-10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 8%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / -1%
1.90/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.29
+25% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +38%
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
416 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 76%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
19.5 Crosses 15.1
0.6 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mirassol FC
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Chapecoense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.95 xG 0.91
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
391 Passes 285
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.08.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
29.07.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
15.04.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mirassol FC
1-0
AWAY Chapecoense
1.01 xG 0.24
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
479 Passes 228
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 6
19 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mirassol FC vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC nicked a narrow win over Chapecoense 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mirassol FC as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (66%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Mirassol FC had 64% of the ball to Chapecoense's 36%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.01 to 0.24.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Mirassol FC had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mirassol FC and 0.00 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Mirassol FC vs Chapecoense?

Mirassol FC 1-0 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 25/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mirassol FC vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mirassol FC win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Mirassol FC 59%, draw 24%, Chapecoense 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirassol FC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mirassol FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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