Aston Villa 1-1 West Ham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
13%
7.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.8
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.2
X/1
19%
4.03
X/2
6%
12.3
X/X
7%
6.67
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.1
2/2
8%
9.63
2/X
7%
18.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.1 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
63%
-5.3pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.0pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+3.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY West Ham United EU Bookmakers 20%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
2.18/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/2.04
+22% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
420 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 79%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
17.8 Crosses 17.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY West Ham United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.46 xG 1.53
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
452 Passes 288
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
10.01.2025 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-1 HT 0-1 West Ham United West Ham United FAK
17.08.2024 West Ham United West Ham United 1-2 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
17.03.2024 West Ham United West Ham United 1-1 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
22.10.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 4-1 HT 1-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
12.03.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 1-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
28.08.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-1 HT 0-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
1-1
AWAY West Ham United
0.85 xG 1.31
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
309 Passes 374
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 39
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs West Ham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa and West Ham United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Aston Villa at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aston Villa had 46% of the ball to West Ham United's 54%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.85 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Aston Villa and 1.00 for West Ham United.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs West Ham United?

Aston Villa 1-1 West Ham United in the England - Premier League on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs West Ham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 58%, draw 23%, West Ham United 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
26 Jan 2025
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