Nantes 1-1 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Jan 2025

Nantes
1-1 HT 0-1
Lyon
📅26/01/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Nantes vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
44%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.48
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 26% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.24
1/2
8%
23.0
1/X
9%
14.4
X/1
10%
8.26
X/2
17%
4.5
X/X
12%
5.03
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.45
2/X
5%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+4.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-5.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nantes v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nantes EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 54%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.11/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.29
-25% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -6%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
268 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 473 · 85%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
18.9 Crosses 16.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Nantes vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nantes
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lyon
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 1.73
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
297 Passes 478
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 31
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.10.2024 Lyon Lyon 2-0 HT 1-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
07.04.2024 Nantes Nantes 1-3 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
20.12.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-0 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
05.04.2023 Nantes Nantes 1-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FRK
17.03.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 1-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
11.01.2023 Nantes Nantes 0-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1

Nantes 1-1 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nantes
1-1
AWAY Lyon
1.24 xG 1.11
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
299 Passes 536
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 45
25 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nantes vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nantes and Lyon shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lyon at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nantes had 37% of the ball to Lyon's 63%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 1.24 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Nantes and 1.17 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Nantes vs Lyon?

Nantes 1-1 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nantes vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Nantes 29%, draw 27%, Lyon 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lyon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Under 2.5
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