Toulouse vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toulouse v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals
Toulouse vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Toulouse
FR1
3-1
HT 1-1
Toulouse
HAZ
1-2
HT 0-1
Toulouse
FR1
4-2
HT 3-1
Montpellier
FR1
Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics
Montpellier edged past Toulouse 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Toulouse at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Toulouse had 67% of the ball to Montpellier's 33%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 0.98 to 0.54 — the balance of chances actually favoured Toulouse.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Toulouse and 1.83 for Montpellier.
What was the final score of Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 53%, draw 26%, Montpellier 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.