Nice 2-0 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Jan 2025

Nice
2-0 HT 1-0
Marsilya
📅26/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Nice vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 27% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.8
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
13%
5.89
X/2
9%
5.76
X/X
10%
4.68
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
22%
3.67
2/X
8%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.4pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nice v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nice EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 40%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -11%
1.57/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.32
+21% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
359 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 81%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
16.5 Crosses 14.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Nice vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nice
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Marsilya
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.31 xG 1.55
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
356 Passes 412
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.09.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
24.04.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-2 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
21.10.2023 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
05.02.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-3 HT 0-2 Nice Nice FR1
28.08.2022 Nice Nice 0-3 HT 0-3 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
20.03.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1

Nice 2-0 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nice
2-0
AWAY Marsilya
1.24 xG 0.83
29% Ball Possession 71%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 12
214 Passes 612
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
18 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nice vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nice got the better of Marsilya 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Nice found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Nice had 29% of the ball to Marsilya's 71%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.24 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nice and 1.67 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Nice vs Marsilya?

Nice 2-0 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nice vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Nice 36%, draw 27%, Marsilya 37%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Marsilya), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
26 Jan 2025
17:00 Le Havre vs Brest Analysis →
19:15 Toulouse vs Montpellier Analysis →
19:15 Nantes vs Lyon Analysis →
19:15 Lens vs Angers Analysis →