Leon 1-0 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 25% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.2pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 25%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.62/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.37
-2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 76%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
20.4 Crosses 18.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
4W-2D-0L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.16 xG 0.31
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
352 Passes 270
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
20.10.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-3 Leon Leon MEK
28.04.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
13.11.2023 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 2-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
18.02.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
07.09.2022 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
05.03.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-0
AWAY FC Juarez
1.88 xG 0.63
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 6
337 Passes 371
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leon vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon nicked a narrow win over FC Juarez 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Leon as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Leon had 49% of the ball to FC Juarez's 51%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.88 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leon's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leon and 0.67 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Leon vs FC Juarez?

Leon 1-0 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Leon 50%, draw 24%, FC Juarez 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leon) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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