Cruz Azul 1-1 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.32
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
15%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.0
Over 2.5
57%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.16
No
52%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.49
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.11
6+ Goals
13%
10.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.11 — our 28% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
71%
-5.1pp
19%
Draw
18%
+0.7pp
15%
Away Win
11%
+4.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
46%
-3.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
54%
+3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.2pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -2%
2.22/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/2.03
-1% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +8%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
389 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 76%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
23.6 Crosses 14.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Puebla
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.05 xG 1.08
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
379 Passes 294
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.10.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
13.04.2024 Puebla Puebla 0-1 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
13.11.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
18.02.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-3 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
24.07.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-2 HT 2-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
06.03.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-3 HT 1-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
1-1
AWAY Puebla
0.82 xG 0.29
70% Ball Possession 30%
15 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
547 Passes 176
87% Pass Accuracy 67%
17 Box Touches 3
22 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul and Puebla couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Cruz Azul at 66% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 70% of the ball to Puebla's 30%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 0.82 to 0.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.50 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Puebla?

Cruz Azul 1-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 66%, draw 19%, Puebla 15%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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