Sao Joao Ver 4-1 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-3.7pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.5pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.6pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Joao Ver EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 38%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.98/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.00
-24% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Joao Ver
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Varzim
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
26.10.2024 Varzim Varzim 2-0 HT 1-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
22.04.2023 Varzim Varzim 1-1 HT 1-1 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
12.02.2023 Varzim Varzim 0-1 HT 0-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
08.11.2022 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POK
29.10.2022 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 1-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Joao Ver
4-1
AWAY Varzim
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sao Joao Ver vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Joao Ver ran out comfortable winners over Varzim 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (32% / 32% / 36%) promised a tight game; Sao Joao Ver found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Joao Ver had 53% of the ball to Varzim's 47%, shots finished 13-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Sao Joao Ver and 0.80 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Sao Joao Ver vs Varzim?

Sao Joao Ver 4-1 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Joao Ver vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated an Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Sao Joao Ver 32%, draw 32%, Varzim 36%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Varzim) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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