Trofense 0-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.56
Over 2.5
44%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+0.7pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
60%
-4.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
40%
+4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.3pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trofense EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 30%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.05/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.34
-20% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trofense
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 HT 1-0 Trofense Trofense POR3
06.01.2024 Trofense Trofense 1-3 HT 0-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
16.09.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 HT 0-0 Trofense Trofense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trofense
0-1
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Trofense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa squeezed past Trofense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Trofense at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Trofense had 52% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 48%, shots finished 9-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lusitania FC Lourosa led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Trofense and 1.67 for Lusitania FC Lourosa.

What was the final score of Trofense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Trofense 0-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trofense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trofense win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Trofense 45%, draw 26%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Trofense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Trofense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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