Kataller Toyama 4-2 JEF United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 26 Mar 2025

📅26/03/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.58
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.25
6+ Goals
8%
21.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 35% vs market 31.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.05
1/2
8%
32.0
1/X
9%
13.45
X/1
12%
5.62
X/2
11%
5.47
X/X
11%
4.03
2/1
11%
32.5
2/2
15%
3.88
2/X
9%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+1.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.8pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kataller Toyama EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY JEF United EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +54% / +54%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +36%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kataller Toyama
0W-1D-2L
AWAY JEF United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
322 Passes 451
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 0
22.02.2025 JEF United JEF United 2-0 HT 1-0 Kataller Toyama Kataller Toyama JAP2
15.11.2014 JEF United JEF United 2-1 HT 0-0 Kataller Toyama Kataller Toyama JAP2
20.04.2014 Kataller Toyama Kataller Toyama 1-1 HT 0-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kataller Toyama
4-2
AWAY JEF United
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kataller Toyama vs JEF United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kataller Toyama saw off JEF United 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Kataller Toyama made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kataller Toyama had 45% of the ball to JEF United's 55%, shots finished 17-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, JEF United led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Kataller Toyama and 1.67 for JEF United.

What was the final score of Kataller Toyama vs JEF United?

Kataller Toyama 4-2 JEF United in the Japan - League Cup on 26/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kataller Toyama vs JEF United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kataller Toyama win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kataller Toyama 38%, draw 28%, JEF United 34%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kataller Toyama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kataller Toyama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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