Oita Trinita 2-3 Renofa Yamaguchi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 26 Mar 2025

📅26/03/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.48
Over 2.5
46%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.09
No
48%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.13
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
5.46
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.15
X/1
13%
5.44
X/2
16%
5.44
X/X
17%
3.5
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
11%
4.18
2/X
4%
14.15
Value flag · 1/X at 14.15 — our 11% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.4pp
32%
Draw
31%
+0.8pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
64%
-10.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
36%
+10.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+8.1pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oita Trinita EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+14% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
317 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oita Trinita
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
255 Passes 283
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 0
16.03.2025 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 1-1 HT 1-0 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2
03.08.2024 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 2-0 HT 1-0 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2
26.05.2024 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 0-0 HT 0-0 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
06.08.2023 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 2-2 HT 2-1 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2
12.04.2023 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 3-1 HT 2-0 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
06.07.2022 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 0-0 HT 0-0 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oita Trinita
2-3
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Oita Trinita vs Renofa Yamaguchi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Renofa Yamaguchi edged past Oita Trinita 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 32% / 32%) promised a tight game; Renofa Yamaguchi found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Oita Trinita had 60% of the ball to Renofa Yamaguchi's 40%, shots finished 11-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Oita Trinita and 1.00 for Renofa Yamaguchi.

What was the final score of Oita Trinita vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Oita Trinita 2-3 Renofa Yamaguchi in the Japan - League Cup on 26/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oita Trinita vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oita Trinita win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Oita Trinita 36%, draw 32%, Renofa Yamaguchi 32%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Oita Trinita), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Oita Trinita) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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